Toyota Motor Corp. Chairman Akio Toyoda predicts battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) to only account for 30% of the overall market, as he strongly believes that hybrids, hydrogen fuel cells, and fuel-burning cars will continue to dominate.
Chairman Toyoda released his debatable statements during his lecture on the Toyota Production System to 200 executives, as per Toyota Times.
Toyota Chairman’s remarks
Chairman Toyoda contends that limiting mobility options to high-cost BEVs is not the right answer, considering that there is a “billion people” without electricity across the world.
“Customers — not regulations or politics — should make that decision.”
Toyota Motor Corp. Chairman Akio Toyoda
In that sense, he forecasts that BEVs will only contribute 30% of the market share, while the remaining will represent hybrids, hydrogen fuel cells, and fuel-burning cars.
“No matter how much progress BEVs make, I think they will still only have a 30% market share. Then, the remaining 70% will be HEVs, FCEVs, and hydrogen engines. And I think engine cars will definitely remain.”
Toyota Motor Corp. Chairman Akio Toyoda
It is unclear whether he meant cars currently on the road or all cars in general, both now and in the future. Chairman Toyoda also did not indicate his source for that figure and the deadline for this cap to transpire.
In hindsight, Chairman Toyoda announced the Japanese automaker’s targets to hit an annual sale of 1.5 million EVs by 2026 and 3.5 million by 2030. Interestingly, the sales volume for the latter will be approximately 30% compared with 2022’s global sales volume.
EV adoption continues to progress
In 2023, EVs accounted for about 18% of all new vehicle sales across the world. Industry experts highly believe that this growth rate will continue to increase.
For instance, BloombergNEF predicts EVs will hit a market share of 44% by 2030 and 75% by 2040. However, it must be noted that these figures will vary from country to country as some may lack the necessary infrastructure to support the shift.
Some markets have already surpassed the 30% mark, including Norway. It achieved a whopping 82.4% EV market share just last year.
Other markets above Toyota Chairman’s set market cap include the following: Sweden (32%), the Netherlands (24%), and China (24%).
In the US, EV sales reportedly surpassed 1.2 million units in 2023. Cox Automotive data revealed that it accounted for 7.6% of the entire auto market, with the potential to hit the 10% mark this year.
Toyota’s EV push
Toyota remains optimistic with its hybrid vehicle technology as it played a significant role in its success as the “world’s largest automaker.” However, times have changed, especially considering the automaker’s reluctance in the battery-electric vehicle segment.
In fact, Toyota’s electric vehicle supply chain is one of the least developed among its competitors. In effect, BEVs only accounted for 95,000 units (or 1%) of its almost 9.4 million vehicle sales globally in 2023.
For comparison, Tesla’s sales reached a new high of 1.81 million EVs in the same period. This figure enabled the American brand to hit its self-set target in 2023.
All that said, Toyota risks falling behind by sticking to outdated practices and ignoring global trends.
