Tesla‘s estimated global EV order backlog in November has reportedly decreased by about 33% to approximately 190,000 units from last month’s record of 285,000, as per Troy Teslike via InsideEVs.
Interestingly, Tesla’s order backlog seems to be improving every month, as shown in the table below:
| Month | Estimated Order Backlog |
| March to July | 500,000 |
| End of August | 400,000 |
| September’s end through October | 300,000 |
| November | Below 200,000 |
Notably, the 190,000 units reported for November are equivalent to 44 days of production capacity. In the past, it had been predicted to take 78 days on September 21 and 70 days on October 6.
That said, if the numbers are accurate, Tesla currently produces a far greater number of new electric cars than it sells.
Changes in three key markets: US, Europe, and China
The US saw the most significant decline recently, with the projected order backlog falling to 60,000 units as of the end of November. It represents a significant decline of over 100,000 in just two months.
It now makes sense why Tesla offered extra incentives in December to encourage the sale of more vehicles in the country.
On the other hand, Tesla’s order book in China has already emptied in the past few months, with an estimated average queue of 2 weeks. Meanwhile, order book in Europe was still largely stable, as per the report.
Factors affecting the disparity between demand and supply for Tesla EVs
The issue in Tesla’s demand and supply can be significantly influenced by the automaker’s production ramp-up, especially with its Gigafactories in California, China, Germany, and Texas.
However, demand for Tesla EVs in China decreased due to COVID-19 lockdowns and the economy’s current status.
On the other hand, US demands for some of Tesla’s vehicles are affected by the impending federal tax credit worth $7,500 under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Customers prefer to wait until next year to be eligible for the said purchase incentive.
Therefore, there was no backlog for three of the five Model 3/Model Y variants (1 week wait times, as per the report).
Hopefully, Tesla will be able to reduce the backlog of orders once the Model 3 and Model Y are again eligible for the $7,500 federal tax credit by the beginning of 2023. Undoubtedly, many customers would be encouraged to order Tesla’s EVs with that significant incentive.
