Tesla CEO Elon Musk announced today that the company’s “Master Plan” will be revealed on March 1 at the company’s “Investor Day” summit in Giga Texas.
Last month, Tesla announced its “Investor Day” event, which will take place in March. Interestingly, this new Tesla event is separate from the annual shareholder meeting, to which some investors will be welcomed to see updates on Tesla’s progress. The event will also be live-streamed.
In retrospect, Tesla has previously held “Battery Days” and “AI Days” to focus on those topics.
Tesla asserted that the Investor Day would include the following topics:
· Factory tours
· A discussion of Tesla’s long-term expansion plans
· The forthcoming generation 3 vehicle platform
The announcement came at the end of Tesla’s worst year in the stock market, with its stock dropping by 65% in 2022. We know that Tesla’s newest “Master Plan” will be revealed at Investor Day.
CEO Musk first hinted at this expansion of Tesla’s Master Plan in March last year, making it nearly a year since it was first mentioned publicly. Previous reports suggested that the plan would be revealed at Investor Day and that forecasting was confirmed today.
It is the third iteration of the company’s Master Plan, the first of which was made public in 2006.
Part one of the Master Plan
Tesla’s mysterious Master Plan began as a witty blog post on the company’s original blog site.
The goal was to lay out Tesla’s vision and let people know what the company was planning to do. Instead of keeping auto industry plans secret, Tesla planned to be open about what it intended to do to change the industry – to lead us into an all-electric future.
So the four steps of the initial plan were as follows:
- Create a sports car
- Use that money to build a low-cost car.
- Use that money to create an even more affordable vehicle.
- In addition to the previous, provide zero-emission electric power generation options.
These were the original Tesla Roadster, the Tesla Model S (which was supposed to start at $50,000 after credits), and the Tesla Model 3 (which was supposed to start at $35,000).
Then, ten years later, in 2016, the company had completed the first two steps and was buying SolarCity and finalizing the Model 3, signaling the end of the plan. It was, therefore, time for an update.
Part two of the Master Plan
Tesla’s “Master Plan, Part Deux” was less reckless but still laid out the company’s plans.
In summary, the four steps this time were as follows:
- Build beautiful solar roofs with completely integrated battery storage.
- Extend the electric vehicle product line to cover all major market segments.
- Through massive fleet learning, create a self-driving capacity that is 10X safer than manual.
- Allow your car to generate income for you when you are not using it.
These procedures were more involved, specific, and perhaps more aspirational. And Tesla may have had less success bringing them to market than the original plan’s steps.
Step 1 has been accomplished, and some consumers have solar panels. Yet, installations have never really taken off in huge numbers, and Tesla has drastically reduced solar roof installations.
Step 2 is nearly finished, based on how we define “major.” Cybertruck is nearing production and is likely to be as close to market as the Model 3 was when Part Deux was posted. Tesla Semi is now on the road, and Tesla offers large and mid-size luxury sedans and crossovers.
These are the majority of the major vehicle segments. However, Tesla does not have a cost-effective car (even its “$35k” model now starts at $43,490 after a recent massive price drop) or any small sedan or hatchback. Or, for that matter, a sportscar, though this is a relatively small market.
Step 3 could be asserted, but it requires extensive data manipulation. According to Tesla’s most recent Autopilot safety report, one accident occurs every 4.31 million miles during Autopilot is activated, compared to one accident every 484,000 miles for average vehicles.
It is approximately 10x but does not account for the fact that Autopilot is used chiefly on roadways, which are significantly safer than city roads, and new cars are also safer than older cars.
Compared to Tesla vehicles that do not have Autopilot enabled, Autopilot is only about 2.7 times safer “than manual” – this does not account for highway vs. surface street distinctions.
Step 4 is not even close (unless you believe Musk, who has been promising self-driving technology “by this time next year” for the past ten years).
As a result, the implementation of this plan has been more ambiguous than the first. Nonetheless, Tesla sees the need to issue an update, this time seven years after the base plan was announced rather than ten.
Part Three of the Master Plan
CEO Musk announced today that “the path to a fully sustainable energy future for Earth will be presented on March 1.”
Tesla has stated previously that Master Plan Part 3 is “all about achieving vast scale” in vehicle and battery pack manufacturing, including refining and mining on a large enough scale to “actually shift the entire energy infrastructure of the Earth.”
Tesla has lately considered entering the mining industry, which could be included in the Master Plan update, and is also speculated to be looking to construct a factory in Mexico.
CEO Musk’s statement today implies that the plan will include discussions about sustainable energy options in addition to cars.
Notably, solar system setups, solar roof tiles, and stationary battery installations with Powerwalls (for home storage) and Powerpacks are among Tesla’s current sustainable energy products (for grid storage).
Moreover, there’s Tesla’s Virtual Power Plant program, which allows Powerwall owners to join a distributed energy storage network to help back up the grid when needed.
These are covered in step 4 of the first Master Plan and measure 1 of the second Master Plan, so we expect them to appear in the third Master Plan.
We will likely see something related to the last Master Plan’s incomplete points, possibly involving autonomous driving. We’ll get an update on Tesla’s dedicated robotaxi, which has been mentioned several times.
Tesla to increase production
Tesla intends to increase car production and deliveries by 50% annually soon. Tesla sold 1.3 million vehicles in 2022, up 40% from 2021, and plans to deliver 1.8-2 million cars in 2023.
Despite using images of a Model 3 body, Tesla could announce a new, even more, mass-production model.
Tesla previously stated that Investor Day would include a discussion of its “generation 3” platform, which is assumed to be more affordable than the Model 3/Y platform.
Since those cars were initially supposed to start at around $35k, the next step was to unveil a vehicle starting at about $25k. Tesla has gone back on whether or not that car was in the plans.
