Trusted Tesla sales and delivery tracker Troy Teslike estimates that the American electric vehicle giant successfully delivered a total of 441,000 units in the third quarter of 2023.
The estimate occurred slightly ahead of the official data from the Musk-led company, which may arrive in the following days.
Tesla’s sales and production in Q3
According to Troy Teslike’s X post, Tesla managed to deliver 441,000 electric vehicles in Q3 2023.
Unfortunately for the company, the figure fell short of the Wall Street guidance of 454,809 units. Alarmingly, his production estimate is even lower at 428,519 units.
As you can see in the data attached to the X post, it includes the following sources:
- DMV VIN
- China Passenger Car Association (CPCA)
- Car insurance data
- Troy Teslike’s order tracking spreadsheets
- Registration data from 24 nations
- Tesla’s weekly production rate and production achievement announcements
- Inventory, export, and shipping data
- Conference calls’ data disclosures
As CleanTechnica noted, Troy Teslike’s sources are remarkably comprehensive. Interestingly, his personal set target for Tesla is to avoid missing the actual figure by over 3%.
Production breakdown
The second thread of Troy Teslike’s X post shows the breakdown of his estimates on Tesla’s deliveries per country and factory throughout the four quarters of 2023 and the year as a whole.
According to his estimates, the US market will dominate Tesla’s sales record with a total of 645,539 units. In Q3 2023 alone, Tesla delivered 157,163 units in its home market.
China seems to be its second-largest market, with an estimated 2023 sales of 604,624 units. Meanwhile, its Q3 2023 sales in the Asian country are 147,161 units.
The third thread of the X post particularly breaks down Troy Teslike’s estimates per the company’s factory sites. As you can see in the photo attached, Shanghai displays a total production estimate of 939,655 units in 2023. In Q3 2023 alone, the estimates were 239,269 units.
In Fremont, Tesla is estimated to produce 556,336 units for the year, while its Q3 2023 figure is 125,640 units.
You can also observe that the Tesla Model 3 estimates for the third quarter indicate a sales decline globally from Q2 2023, with China having the largest decline.
Troy expects a sales decline of over 24,000 units, which may be largely due to the arrival of the Model 3 Highland and the factory upgrades.
See Also:
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Unsurprisingly, the popular Tesla Model Y is estimated to report a sales increase of about 13,000 units in China in Q3 from the previous quarter. In addition, he estimates that the e-SUV deliveries beyond China, Europe, and North America in the same period will also expand by around 10,000 units.
That would be unsurprising, considering that Tesla Model Y has been topping the sales charts this year. Moreover, Tesla also launched a revamped Model Y in China on October 1, which can significantly boost the model’s sales in the following quarter.
