Leading American electric automaker Tesla has just hit its first quarterly delivery decline in the first quarter of the year since 2020, missing Wall Street’s expectations.
Deliveries – Q1 2024
According to the press release, Tesla’s global electric vehicle deliveries reached a total of 386,810 units. It indicates an 8.5% year-on-year drop, marking the company’s lowest quarterly delivery results since Q3 2022.
While this delivery result was enough for the Musk-led company to regain the EV crown from China’s BYD, the YoY delivery drop remains alarming for Tesla and the entire market. As previous reports suggest, demand for EVs weakened due to slower-than-expected uptake. It prompted automakers to reevaluate their electrification plans to avoid further loss.
Analysts’ expectations
Analysts’ expectations for Tesla’s Q1 2024 deliveries have been all over the place in the past few weeks.
In March, the Wall Street forecast was about 470,000 deliveries. However, it has continuously declined ahead of Tesla’s official release as many of them now expect a weak quarterly performance compared to the prior one. As of today, the consensus stands at 431,000 deliveries.
For reference, Tesla’s Q4 2023 deliveries hit a record of 484,507 units (up 20% YoY). In Q1 2023, its EV deliveries reached 422,875 units.
Production – Q1 2024
As for production, Tesla built 433,371 electric vehicles in the first quarter of the year, a notable decline from its production record of 440,808 units in the same period last year.
Most of Tesla’s production comprised Model Y crossovers and Model 3 sedans. Unfortunately, Tesla omitted to share the number of Cybertrucks it produced. Refer to the table below:
Production | Deliveries | Subject to operating lease accounting | |
| Model 3/Y | 412,376 | 369,783 | 2% |
| Other Models | 20,995 | 17,027 | 1% |
| Total | 433,371 | 386,810 | 2% |
The significant gap between Tesla’s deliveries and production suggests that “beyond the known production bottleneck, there may also be a serious demand issue,” as noted by Deutsche Bank analyst Emmanuel Rosner. The disappointing Q1 2024 results raise questions about Tesla’s capability to gain even modest growth this year.
Tesla outlined some excuses for missing electric vehicle delivery forecasts in Q1 2024.
“Decline in volumes was partially due to the early phase of the production ramp of the updated Model 3 at our Fremont factory and factory shutdowns resulting from shipping diversions caused by the Red Sea conflict and an arson attack at Gigafactory Berlin.”
Tesla
Tesla’s Q1 2024 substantially worried investors, pushing them to send shares down around 5% Tuesday. TSLA stock has dropped 33% in 2024 through Tuesday, making it the second-worst performer in the S&P 500 index.
