Tesla Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology’s annual revenue could potentially hit billions of dollars by the end of the decade, according to Goldman analyst Mark Delaney’s forecast in a note to investors.
FSD’s annual revenue
Analyst Delaney’ and his team’s “Contextualizing Tesla’s AI and FSD opportunities” note contends that the Tesla FSD suit has already reached an annual revenue of $1 billion to $3 billion despite still being in beta, Yahoo!Finance reported.
Tesla requires FSD software customers to pay a $12,000 upfront fee or a $199 monthly subscription.
2030 forecasts
Interestingly, Analyst Delaney asserted in the note that Tesla’s FSD suite could potentially hit an annual revenue of $10 billion to $75 billion by 2030.
It is undoubtedly an enormous money, as the automaker’s overall revenue last year was $81.5 billion.
“We believe that Tesla’s software related revenue could be tens of billions of dollars per year by 2030 (mostly from FSD). These scenarios suggest that in an upside case FSD could account for tens of billions of revenue per year (and more if we consider licensing of Dojo or selling FSD to other OEMs).”
Goldman analyst Mark Delaney
The Goldman analyst provided low, mid, and high revenue and EPS forecasts for Tesla’s wide range of businesses in 2030. According to the figures, Tesla’s businesses (vehicles, software, energy, and services) could deliver an annual revenue of $625 billion in the given timeline.
“This [auto sales] could account for ~$525-600 bn of revenue. We believe services could be >$150 bn as Tesla’s installed base grows (and from opening its charging network and insurance). We believe energy, software, and robotics would make up the balance (or provide upside).”
Goldman analyst Mark Delaney
Refer to the table below:
Tesla’s 2030 EPS Scenarios
| LOW | MID | HIGH | |
| VEHICLE REVENUE | $200B | $300B | $400B |
| SOFTWARE REVENUE | $10B | $40B | $75B |
| ENERGY REVENUE | $30B | $40B | $50B |
| SERVICES/OTHER REVENUE | $75B | $85B | $100B |
| TOTAL REVENUE | $315B | $465B | $625B |
| EBIT MARGIN | 13.0% | 16.5% | 22.0% |
| EPS | $9.84 | $18.08B | $31.91 |
| CAGR FROM 2025 | 12% | 27% | 42% |
Challenges
Teslarati noted that Tesla will still face major challenges before reaching Analyst Delaney’s annual revenue forecasts by 2030.
These downsides include steeper price reductions in the following years that would substantially compress margins and reduce profitability.
In addition, product launch delays and FSD development issues may also affect Tesla’s revenue.
All that said, the team maintained its stock rating at “Hold” with a price target of $235. They also noted that Tesla may hit those metrics if it manages to sell 15 million EVs annually by 2040 “with room for upside.”
