Solar and wind energy are on track to become the main growth drivers of power generation in the United States for the next two years, according to the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest Short-Term Energy Outlook.
US’ power generation in 2023
The report indicated the US’ power production of 4,017 billion kWh in 2023. Impressively, renewable sources contributed 22% or 874 billion kWh to the overall power generation last year. For context, it includes wind, solar, hydro, biomass, and geothermal energies.
It is also worth noting that annual renewable power generation successfully beat nuclear energy for the first time in 2021. In 2022, it managed to exceed coal power generation, highlighting the nation’s shift to more sustainable energy alternatives.
EIA forecast
In another significant progress, the EIA released new optimistic forecasts for power generation growth in the US in the subsequent couple of years.
“We are experiencing a significant shift in US electric generation, as solar generation grows rapidly, taking market share from coal and tempering the growth in natural gas usage. Coal and natural gas remain important to the US electric grid, even as variable renewable resources such as solar and wind grow.”
EIA Administrator Joe DeCarolis said in a press release
Power generation
As per the Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA expects solar power generation in the US to surge 75% to 286 billion kWh in 2025 due to the new solar projects launching this year. It indeed indicates a significant increase from 2023’s record of 163 billion kilowatt hours (kWh).
Meanwhile, it forecasts wind power generation will enjoy an 11% growth to 476 billion kWh in 2025 from just 430 billion kWh in 2023.
On the other hand, the government agency expects coal power generation to suffer from an 18% drop to 548 billion kWh in 2025 from an astounding 665 billion kWh in 2023. Meanwhile, nuclear power generation will slightly grow to 797 billion kWh in 2025 from 776 billion kWh in 2023.
However, natural gas will remain the dominant energy source in the country, with a projected annual generation of approximately 1,700 billion kWh in 2024 and 2025, just like last year.
Capacity growth forecast
The EIA emphasized the tendencies of wind and solar developers to officially launch their projects at the end of the calendar year. Therefore, it will substantially boost the power generation growth forecasts for the subsequent year.
For instance, proposed solar projects increased the electric power sector’s solar capacity by 38% from just 95 gigawatts (GW) at the end of 2023 to 131 GW by the end of the following year. That said, solar energy remains the fastest-growing renewable source due to the higher capacity expansion and the Inflation Reduction Act’s supportive tax credits.
On the other hand, wind capacity is expected to slightly increase from 149 GW in December 2023 to 156 GW by the end of this year.
Despite these major advancements in renewable energy adoption, natural gas will remain the leading source of power in the US in the next two years. Therefore, the government must continue to develop new policies and regulations to cut the country’s reliance on natural gas and fully embrace renewable energy sources.
