Europe will become the world’s biggest electric vehicle market by 2030, surpassing China and the US, as European EV registrations speed up and sales exceed 70% of the market, according to industry predictions.
The European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) analyzed trends and developments in battery electric vehicle markets. It found that while China currently leads the US and Europe in the car market’s electrification, the European market will pick up in 2025 and take the lead back on the other world regions by 2030.
So far in 2022, nearly 20% of all new cars registered in China are BEVs, meaning that the country is now ahead of Europe and well ahead of the US in the electrification of the car market.
European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association
However, according to GoAutoNews, battery electric car sales are expected to reach nearly 30% of the European market by 2025 and exceed 70% by 2030 – retaking the lead in other world regions.
However, it said that while the electric vehicle sales mix in Europe would be greater than in other markets, China would remain the dominant manufacturer and be the dominant EV exporter to markets, which includes Europe.
Toyota to launch five EVs in Europe by 2026
The prediction corresponds with Toyota confirming it would launch five all-electric vehicles in Europe under its bZ sub-brand by 2026. It currently sells the bZ4X mid-size SUV in Europe and in Australia from the second half of 2023.
Toyota plans 50% of its sales in its Europe region, including Israel, Turkey and some Eurasian countries, to come from all-electric by 2030, ahead of the European Union’s mandate to ban sales of petrol and diesel cars by 2035.
By 2025, Toyota approximates that 10% of its European region sales will be pure-electric, with 80% coming from hybrid and plug-in hybrid models. In 2022, 66% of its sales will be hybrid, the automaker estimated.
This year, Toyota launched the bZ4X after focusing on producing a full-hybrid model range to meet its EU emissions targets.
In addition, it plans to sell full-electric large vans produced by Stellantis and marketed as names, which include the Fiat Ducato, but branded as Toyotas from mid-2024.
Toyota Motor Europe head Matt Harrison says Toyota would expand its all-electric passenger-car lineup, which “indicates our clear commitment to BEVs.”
The upcoming bZ lineup includes small and compact SUVs/crossovers and three larger models. Notably, the bZ models will be sold internationally.
Volkswagen to export EVs from China to Europe
Furthermore, Volkswagen was reported to be following BMW, Tesla, and other automakers by exporting its electric vehicles from China to Europe.
The reason is tightening production capacities in European factories due to labor issues, transport holdups, and shortages of components.
In an interview with Automotive News Europe, Volkswagen also stated that its Spanish brand, Cupra, would build its first all-electric SUV, the Tavascan, at one of its joint venture factories in the eastern Chinese province of Anhui.
The Tavascan is made on the same platform as the all-electric Volkswagen ID series and is aimed to go on sale in Europe in 2024. It’s Cupra’s second model based on the MEB platform after the Born hatchback.
The Anhui factory was the plant with the right capacity and technology at the time of production planning.
Volkswagen
It said it has no plans to build other vehicles in China for export.
EV models exported to European showrooms
Electric models currently exported from Chinese factories to European showrooms include BMW iX3, Tesla Model 3, and Renault Dacia Spring.
Recently, international accounting consultancy PwC projected that automakers would sell 800,000 cars imported from China to Europe annually.
It noted that of the possible 800,000 Chinese-built cars, around 330,000 would be from Western automakers such as BMW, Renault, and Tesla.
While Chinese manufacturers are selling more and more BEVs in Europe, European and American manufacturers are increasingly shifting their BEV production to China.
PwC
Felix Kuhnert, partner and automotive leader at PwC Germany, stated European automakers continue to see supply chain issues and are focusing on producing more expensive (and lower-volume) electric vehicles in Europe.
Kuhnert added that Chinese manufacturers have optimized and developed their products in the domestic market. And so, they’re now putting affordable BEV models, innovative technology, and novel concepts into Europe.
