Tesla‘s projected global electric vehicle order backlog fluctuations offer us significant data to better analyze industry trends, as per InsideEVs. It could even explain the recent price cuts in China.
Troy Teslike’s stats and forecasts
Data from Troy Teslike revealed that Tesla’s projected order backlog declined after reaching a peak of almost 500,000 units in July. Based on the latest publicly accessible data dated October 21, the order backlog fell below 300,000 (as of October 6) for the first time this year.
Notably, the 293,000 units equate to around 70 days of manufacturing capacity. On September 1, it was predicted to take 78 days.
Furthermore, the new graph demonstrates how promptly Tesla’s backlog of Chinese orders reduced dramatically. It is less than 11,000 units compared to 170,000-180,000 units from March to July.
Increased production’s impact on delivery time and China price cuts
Those numbers above are not surprising as the automaker recently announced ramping up production at the Giga Shanghai. Consequently, the expected delivery time in China for nearly all Made-in-China (MIC) vehicles was reduced to a few weeks (1-10 weeks, depending on the version.)
These instances suggest that Tesla is looking for a new supply-demand equilibrium point. To put it simply, demand is anticipated to rise at noticeably lower prices in China. It will likely cause the forecast order backlog to stabilize at a manageable level.
Any excess output might boost the supply of vehicles for Europe and other markets since the Tesla Giga Shanghai factory serves as a central export hub.
Notably, the Giga Berlin plant is a new European Model Y supplier. Therefore, this is the next market to watch.
Nonetheless, the most significant development will likely be the renewed qualification for the $7,500 federal tax credit for Tesla vehicles in the United States, as it can significantly reduce the pricing.
Even with all these statistics and projections, it is still challenging to predict what will happen in the US. It is worth noting that price reductions and faster delivery dates are priorities for customers. Tesla may provide the customers with these specific requests if everything goes as planned.