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EV-a2z > News > Estimated Tesla order backlog chart explains price cuts in China
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Estimated Tesla order backlog chart explains price cuts in China

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Last updated: 2022/10/29 at 4:44 PM
admin Published October 29, 2022 3 Min Read
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Photograph of a red Tesla model S driving on the road, close up on the front
Photograph of a red Tesla model S driving on the road, close up on the front
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Tesla‘s projected global electric vehicle order backlog fluctuations offer us significant data to better analyze industry trends, as per InsideEVs. It could even explain the recent price cuts in China.

Estimated Tesla Order Backlog Chart Explains Price Cuts In China https://t.co/8csUEoZC26 pic.twitter.com/NutPXMhDMc

— Flyin18T Motorsports (@Flyin18T) October 25, 2022

Troy Teslike’s stats and forecasts

Data from Troy Teslike revealed that Tesla’s projected order backlog declined after reaching a peak of almost 500,000 units in July. Based on the latest publicly accessible data dated October 21, the order backlog fell below 300,000 (as of October 6) for the first time this year.

Notably, the 293,000 units equate to around 70 days of manufacturing capacity. On September 1, it was predicted to take 78 days.

Furthermore, the new graph demonstrates how promptly Tesla’s backlog of Chinese orders reduced dramatically. It is less than 11,000 units compared to 170,000-180,000 units from March to July.

Increased production’s impact on delivery time and China price cuts

Those numbers above are not surprising as the automaker recently announced ramping up production at the Giga Shanghai. Consequently, the expected delivery time in China for nearly all Made-in-China (MIC) vehicles was reduced to a few weeks (1-10 weeks, depending on the version.)

Additionally, Tesla reduced the cost of every Model 3 and Model Y version in China by an additional 5-9%.

Tesla cuts price of their cars in China resulting in mass ordering and website crashing.

Chinese EV stocks next day. $TSLA pic.twitter.com/tJ8Sn5WA9f

— Ai Proxima (@Proxima06_Aiai) October 24, 2022

Tesla price cuts follow Elon Musk’s comments last week that a ‘recession of sorts’ was underway in China and Europe https://t.co/t4ZASuIMDJ pic.twitter.com/FpyS9UhHfS

— Al Jazeera English (@AJEnglish) October 24, 2022

These instances suggest that Tesla is looking for a new supply-demand equilibrium point. To put it simply, demand is anticipated to rise at noticeably lower prices in China. It will likely cause the forecast order backlog to stabilize at a manageable level.

Hi everybody. Based on my calculation, Tesla's global order backlog was 293K units on 6 Oct, down from 299K on 30 Sep.

I have now switched from backlog by factory to backlog by region. This is the first table that shows the backlog in China only which was very low.

Part 1/2 pic.twitter.com/70pBHt34pS

— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) October 20, 2022

Any excess output might boost the supply of vehicles for Europe and other markets since the Tesla Giga Shanghai factory serves as a central export hub. 

What changed in 2020? Giga Shanghai.

Tesla needed time to build new factories.

Next phase of explosive growth is upon us, now, with Berlin/Austin ramping and Shanghai starting peak production this quarter. https://t.co/WtGKw2V7J3

— James Cat (@TSLAFanMtl) October 22, 2022

Notably, the Giga Berlin plant is a new European Model Y supplier. Therefore, this is the next market to watch.

Nonetheless, the most significant development will likely be the renewed qualification for the $7,500 federal tax credit for Tesla vehicles in the United States, as it can significantly reduce the pricing.

Here is a detailed table. The calculation is based on the production rate of each model and the wait times for new orders shown on Tesla's website.

There is 2 weeks lag between Patreon and Twitter. A new update posted today is available here: https://t.co/aKk9FESA6J

Part 2/2 pic.twitter.com/5MYetXdLAi

— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) October 20, 2022

Even with all these statistics and projections, it is still challenging to predict what will happen in the US. It is worth noting that price reductions and faster delivery dates are priorities for customers. Tesla may provide the customers with these specific requests if everything goes as planned.

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TAGGED: China, Electric Vehicle, EV, EV Sales, Tesla
admin October 29, 2022 October 29, 2022
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