The electric mining vehicle industry has the potential to hit a valuation of almost $23 billion by 2044, as per IDTechEx’s recent “Electric Vehicles in Mining 2024-2044” report.
Driving factors
Electric mining vehicles, including haul trucks, dump trucks, underground loaders, and mining light conveyances, among others, are expected to become a $23 billion industry 20 years from now.
As per the study, large electric vehicle batteries and cutting-edge fast-charging technologies continue to propel the shift to electric and autonomous vehicles in the mining sector.
“Mining vehicles come in a wide range of sizes, so mining batteries can vary wildly too – from 100 kWh for light vehicles up to 2 MWh for large electric haul trucks. The uniquely large nature of these batteries means they are only now becoming sufficiently developed and competitively priced.”
Electric Vehicles in Mining 2024-2044 report
The report further noted that suppliers of turnkey batteries have achieved significant advancements in the development of automotive technologies to make mining activities easier and faster.
“Turnkey battery suppliers, including CATL, ABB, and Northvolt, have developed products that are particularly well-suited to mining vehicles, and their development work is continuing.”
Electric Vehicles in Mining 2024-2044 report
LFP battery’s prevalence
IDTechEx’s report also indicated that lithium-nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC) and lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries are among the top two chemistries employed in building electric mining vehicles.
Remarkably, nearly 80% of electric mining vehicles utilize LFP batteries despite their lower energy densities. Nonetheless, this is apparently not a major disadvantage, as vehicles used in the mining sector are usually already heavy with tremendous loads of ore.
“Where LFP does win out is in its cycle life. IDTechEx expects that some of the most demanding mining vehicles, such as haul trucks, will far exceed the cycle life deliverable by a single NMC or LFP pack and require multiple battery replacements. Minimizing the frequency of replacements by using a longer-life battery pack is an effective way to make EVs more economical.”
Electric Vehicles in Mining 2024-2044 report
As noted in the report, LFP batteries also tend to be safer than other chemistries in terms of fire risks.
“Safety is another crucial factor in mining, especially regarding the fire safety of batteries in underground tunnels. LFP cells are generally considered safer in this aspect, which limits the risk posed to mine workers.”
Electric Vehicles in Mining 2024-2044 report
Considering the strong dominance of LFP and NMC batteries, IDTechEx projects that more battery chemistries like lithium-titanium-oxide (LTO) and sodium-ion (Na-ion) will emerge and eventually become feasible for mining applications.
Addressing charging concerns
According to IDTechEx, one of the leading factors affecting the slow adoption of electric vehicles in the mining sector is the long time it takes to charge. These extended hours of downtime substantially impede the electric vehicle’s productivity.
Fortunately, electric automakers have started to advance in developing mining EVs with reduced charging time.
“Conventional cable-based charging methods are used in many of these solutions, with most mining EVs utilizing DC fast charging. OEMs are now looking to employ methods including multi-gun charging and megawatt charging systems to bring times down to between 20 and 60 minutes.”
Electric Vehicles in Mining 2024-2044 report
However, employing such high charging rates can lead to battery degradation, potentially increasing the frequency of battery replacements.
IDTechEx suggests battery-swapping technology as a viable alternative to cable-based charging despite its higher cost.
“Battery swapping is excellent for productivity but can be more expensive in some scenarios and will require dedicated space and infrastructure for swapping.”
Electric Vehicles in Mining 2024-2044 report
In addition, the report emphasized the significant role of dynamic charging in addressing charging concerns for electric mining vehicles. It can apparently cut charging downtime and improve productivity. However, it is still under development and has minimal application as of today.
“All of the above charging methods are likely to play a part in driving the electrification of the industry, with different methods to be used for different vehicles depending on their technical requirements and duty cycle demands. OEMs and charging providers are still working on optimizing their technologies.”
Electric Vehicles in Mining 2024-2044 report
It would be interesting to see how IDTechEx’s 2044 forecast would transpire. However, it would not be surprising, considering the increasing adoption of electric vehicles across various sectors to combat environmental issues such as climate change and global warming.
