California’s new vehicle sales increased in the fourth quarter. However, 2022 was slower than 2021 due to many factors, mainly supply chain issues.
California New Car Dealers Association’s (CNCDA) data and estimates suggest that 422,083 new light vehicles were registered in California in Q4 (up 13.6 percent year over year), with a total of 1.67 million registered years to date (down 10.2 percent).
The good news is that projections for 2023 are cautiously optimistic. Moreover, an essential thing for us is that the plug-in electric car sector continues to grow, with a record-high market share.
In Q4, 102,279 plug-in electric vehicles were registered (a 56 percent increase over the previous year), setting a new quarterly record and the first six-digit result.
In addition, the market share increased to a new high of 24.2 percent. This equates to nearly one out of every four new light vehicles. If we include non-rechargeable hybrids, the electrified vehicle share would be almost 35%.
All-electric vehicles blew us away, setting a new record of 88,371 units (up 66 percent year on year) and capturing nearly 21 percent of the market.
Interestingly, plug-in hybrids showed a slight increase (by 13% year on year) after three negative quarters.
California plug-in electric vehicle registrations (estimated) – Q4 2022
· BEVs: 88,371 (up 66%, market share of 20.9%)
· PHEVs: 13,908 (up 13%, market share of 3.3%)
· Total plug-ins: 102,279 (up 56%, market share of 24.2%)
· HEVs: 43,937 (up 0.2%, market share of 10.4%)
· Total xEVs: 146,216 (up 34%, market share of 34.6%)
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |
| Electric registrations | 99121 | 106752 | 101628 | 176357 | 285199 |
| Electric shares | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 9.5% | 17.1% |
| Hybrid registrations | 92658 | 117218 | 113103 | 196777 | 183461 |
| Hybrid shares | 4.3% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 10.6% | 11.0% |
| Plug-in registrations | 64644 | 52329 | 31144 | 61261 | 50035 |
| Plug in shares | 3.0% | 25% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 3.0% |
Registrations of plug-in electric vehicles in California (estimated) – Q1-Q4 2022
More than 518,000 new plug-in electric cars will be registered in California by 2022, with an additional 285,000 all-electric vehicles. The overall number of plug-in electric car registrations in 2021 was over 237,000.
With a 62 percent growth rate and a 17.1 percent market share, all-electric vehicles were the driving force behind electrification.
· BEVs: 285,199 (up 62%, market share of 17.1%)
· PHEVs: 50,035 (down 18%, market share of 3.0%)
· Total plug-ins: 335,234 (up 41%, market share of 20.1%)
· HEVs: 183,461 (down 7%, market share of 11.0%)
· Total xEVs: 518,695 (up 19%, market share of 31.1%)
The trend is very positive, and we anticipate good results in 2023. One in every three new vehicles will be rechargeable, up from 20.1 percent in 2022.
Models on top
The data shows that six stand-alone all-electric models are among the top models in 2022, with three rankings first in their respective subcategories.
Three all-electric vehicles topped their respective subcategories:
· Tesla Model Y (87,257): #1 in Luxury Compact SUV (53.5% share)
· Tesla Model 3 (78,934): #1 in Near Luxury Cars (55.1% share)
· Tesla Model X (11,273): #4 in Luxury Mid-Size SUV (12.3% share)
· Ford Mustang Mach-E (9,788): #3 in 2 Row Mid-Size SUV (13.3% share)
· Tesla Model S (9,234): #1 in Luxury and High-End Sports Cars (19.7% share)
· Mercedes-Benz EQS (3,331): #5 in Luxury and High-End Sports Cars (7.1% share)
Tesla Model Y and Model 3 remain the top two positions in California.
The Tesla Model Y and Model 3 were the two most popular new cars in California (no change from previous quarters), extending their lead over competitors.
The top five models are as follows:
1. Tesla Model Y – 87,257
2. Tesla Model 3 – 78,934
3. Toyota RAV4 – 59,794
4. Toyota Camry – 55,967
5. Ford F-Series – 40,232
Remember that a year ago, the Tesla Model Y was ranked second (60,394), just ahead of the Toyota Camry (61,599).
Tesla product sales
Tesla was the second most popular brand in California after four quarters, with a share of 11.2 percent (behind Toyota with 17.3 percent share, but ahead of Ford with 8.4 percent share).
Tesla also maintains its 65 percent market share in the BEV segment. Non-Tesla BEV registrations totaled 98,488.
California results for the first four quarters of 2022:
· Tesla Model Y – 87,257
· Tesla Model 3 – 78,934
· Tesla Model X – 11,273
· Tesla Model S – 9,234
· Tesla total: *186,711 (up 54.2%, 11.2% share)
non-Tesla BEVs total: 98,488
* In CNCDA data, we noticed a minor gap between the total and the sum of the four specific models.
CNCDA indicated that Tesla has a 3.5% market share in the United States. Compared to the 13,865,892 units sold this year, it would have to be around 485,000.
With the United States and California numbers, we can assume the difference, which is the number of Teslas registered in states other than California. It’s nearly 300,000.
