The US International Energy Agency stunned the renewable energy industry with its first-ever outlook regarding fossil fuels share in the global energy supply chain. According to the “World Energy Outlook 2023” released today, global CO2 emissions will peak by 2025.
“The transition to clean energy is happening worldwide and it’s unstoppable. It’s not a question of ‘if,’ it’s just a matter of ‘how soon’ – and the sooner the better for all of us.”
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol
Forecast details
To be specific, the IEA expects the energy generation from natural gas, coal, and oil to decline by 73% in 2030 from being stuck at approximately 80% for decades.
As mentioned, it predicts the world’s CO2 emissions to peak by 2025.
In addition, the IEA also anticipates the number of electric vehicles worldwide to grow tenfold in 2030 from 2023’s record.
Role of solar power
Solar continues to dominate the shift to renewable energy. The IEA indicated that the solar industry will surpass the electricity generation of the current US power system by the end of the decade.
It also forecasts that renewable energy will account for almost 50% of the global electricity generation. According to Electrek, it indicates a notable increase from just about 30% today.
It also expects global wind energy investments to overthrow new coal- and gas-fired power plants by threefold. Moreover, it forecasts heat pumps and other heating systems to surpass fossil fuel boilers.
“The world is projected to deploy 500 GW of solar by 2030, but it’s also set to have manufacturing capacity for more than 1,200 GW of solar panels per year. If the world were to reach deployment of 800 GW of new solar capacity by the end of the decade, that would lead to a further 20% reduction in coal-fired power generation in China in 2030 compared with a scenario based on today’s policy settings.”
Electrek
Renewable energy growth
According to the report, renewable energy will contribute 80% of the overall new power generation output by 2030 under the existing national policies. Solar will contribute over 50% of this forecasted renewable energy growth.
Global energy think tank Ember’s estimates suggest that the the IEA raised its forecast in its 2023 report by a whopping 62% from its outlook last year.
“This report signals a major upgrade to the outlook for renewables. It’s been a long time coming, but renewable electricity will soon be built at a scale that can at last halt the rise of fossil fuels, not just within the power sector, but across the entire economy.”
Ember’s global insights lead, Dave Jones
The world has a high potential to accelerate the shift to clean and sustainable energy if countries adhere to the set energy policies and achieve climate goals without delay.
However, the IEA emphasized that the global industry must still launch stricter standards and policies to limit global warming to 1.5C.
